I cannot conceal the fact here that in the specific application of these rules, I foresee many things happening which can cause one to be badly mistaken if he does not proceed cautiously. -- James Bernoulli (1713, Part 4, Chapter III)
5 Queer uses for probability theory 概率论的古怪应用
我不能遮盖的一个事实是:我预见到,如果在应用这些规则的时候不够谨慎仔细,可以导致各种各样拙劣的错误. -- 詹姆斯.伯努利(1713, 第四部分, 第三章)
I.J.Good (1950) has shown how we can use probability theory backwards to measure our own strengths of belief about propositions. For example, how strongly do you believe in extrasensory perception?
I.J.Good已经展示了如何用概率论来反向测量对命题的坚信度.举例来说,你有多相信存在超级第六感?